Informing the Principles

Game Over

Finding Value as AI Dismantles the Software Industry

The Reference Class

Improving our hit rate by shrinking the reference class

The Rush

The Inspiration to Innovate

What are the chances?

The human mind, it turns out, is particularly lame when it comes to conditional probabilities.

The Innovation Switch

The pathway to innovation is both unknown and unknowable.

Smoked

Webvan is a story worth remembering about a company worth forgetting.

Indexed

The Consumer Price Index is one big deception. We ignore it.

Innovation’s Curious Clusters

Is innovation an investable concept? Can we predict innovation before innovation occurs?